The 2017 Season Predictions Thread

How many games do the Dodgers win, this year?

  • 100+ (or you're high)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 96-100

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 91-95

    Votes: 5 71.4%
  • 86-90

    Votes: 2 28.6%
  • 81-85

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 80 and below (you're also high)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    7
  • Poll closed .

Matthew

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#1
Yeah, so I'm about a month and a half late on this one, I know. I hardly have time for anything these days, so blame my hectic schedule… or, better yet, you can just blame Kyle. Personally, I prefer the latter. Anyway…

In a sense, I'm glad to start this thread a bit on the late side. Because it's early enough to where things can drastically change, but late enough to where you can potentially sense what could be some of the team's strengths and weaknesses going forward. Having said that, let's provide some context on how early it is in the season:

The Dodgers are 17-14, in 3rd place. Put differently, we're barely 20% through the season. To provide additional context:

1. The 2005 Dodgers started 12-2. One of the worst teams in franchise history.
2. The 2013 Dodgers started… well, I don't remember the exact numbers, but they were pretty freaking awful through June. Came within 2 games of the World Series. Thanks Hanley and Puig.
3. The 2015 Dodgers' bullpen was lights out through Memorial Day. Uh, this team did not go down known for their bullpen greatness.

I can go on, but you get the idea. So, in addition to the fancy poll I've created, let's answer the following questions…

The Team

1. How many games do the Dodgers win, this year?
2. Is it enough to win the NL West?
3. Which team will be the greatest threat in the division?
4. What do you see being the team's strengths?
5. What do you see being the team's weaknesses?
6. Are the Dodgers as good as their main NL rivals (Cubs, Nationals, etc.)? If not, can they be?
7. Is Rich Hill a valuable contributor to this team come September?
8. What about Hyun-jin Ryu?
9. The starting outfield for the Dodgers on August 1st is…
10. The starting rotation for the Dodgers on September 1st is…
11. The starting first baseman for the Dodgers on September 1st is…
12. Does Chase Utley finish the season as a Dodger?
13. Does Cody Bellinger win NL ROY?
14. The biggest surprise for the Dodgers this year will be…
15. Which continues to recede faster in 2017: Andre Ethier's health or his hairline?

Numbers

1. Predict Clayton Kershaw's numbers
2. Does he win another Cy Young?
3. Predict Julio Urias's numbers
4. Predict Cody Bellinger's numbers
5. Predict Kenta Maeda's numbers

The Front Office

1. What's your grade of their offseason?
2. What would you have done differently that would make this team better? When answering this question, don't go into fantasy baseball mode, keep in mind the circumstances (payroll, trade demands from other teams, prospects, etc.).
3. What do you like most about this FO? What do they get right?
4. What do you least like about this FO? What do they get wrong?
5. Predict their trade deadline
6. Do you feel confident they can/will deliver a World Series title?
 

grabarkewitz

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#2
1. How many games do the Dodgers win, this year? 95
2. Is it enough to win the NL West? Easily
3. Which team will be the greatest threat in the division? Rockies, but I don't see more than 85 wins from them
4. What do you see being the team's strengths? depth, starting pitching and even though it isn't showing now, offense
5. What do you see being the team's weaknesses? bullpen, manager
6. Are the Dodgers as good as their main NL rivals (Cubs, Nationals, etc.)? If not, can they be? Yes and No. They are as good if not better than the Cubs, but the Nationals have more offense. Where we top the Nats is depth and closer
7. Is Rich Hill a valuable contributor to this team come September? Yes, but he will miss significant time during the season
8. What about Hyun-jin Ryu? Yes, I see him being the bridge to Hill.
9. The starting outfield for the Dodgers on August 1st is… Puig, Cain and Bellinger
10. The starting rotation for the Dodgers on September 1st is…Kershaw, Urias, Hill, Maeda and as yet unnamed starter, I am thinking we make a blockbuster with KC for Cain and Duffy with us sending Pederson, Toles and Stewart
11. The starting first baseman for the Dodgers on September 1st is…AGon, he gets healthy enough to bat seventh
12. Does Chase Utley finish the season as a Dodger? no, but he is given a front office job until Roberts figures out how to get fired
13. Does Cody Bellinger win NL ROY? Yes
14. The biggest surprise for the Dodgers this year will be…Chris Taylor
15. Which continues to recede faster in 2017: Andre Ethier's health or his hairline? Both are falling over the cliff, can I choose push

Numbers

1. Predict Clayton Kershaw's numbers 21-4 1.91 255 k's 18 bb's
2. Does he win another Cy Young? Yes
3. Predict Julio Urias's numbers 12-3 2.07 156 ks and 45bb's
4. Predict Cody Bellinger's numbers .294/.368/.520
5. Predict Kenta Maeda's numbers 13-7 4.05 159 k's and 41 bb's
 
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#3
1. How many games do the Dodgers win, this year? 89
2. Is it enough to win the NL West? Yes
3. Which team will be the greatest threat in the division? Rockies
4. What do you see being the team's strengths? Bullpen
5. What do you see being the team's weaknesses? Catcher, especially defenseley
6. Are the Dodgers as good as their main NL rivals (Cubs, Nationals, etc.)? If not, can they be? No, only if they get a starting pitcher to support Kershaw consistently
7. Is Rich Hill a valuable contributor to this team come September? No
8. What about Hyun-jin Ryu? Ride him until he breaks
9. The starting outfield for the Dodgers on August 1st is… Belly, Toles, Braun
10. The starting rotation for the Dodgers on September 1st is… Kershaw, acquired pitcher, Urias, McCarthy, Maeda
11. The starting first baseman for the Dodgers on September 1st is… Agon
12. Does Chase Utley finish the season as a Dodger? Yes
13. Does Cody Bellinger win NL ROY? Yes
14. The biggest surprise for the Dodgers this year will be… McCarthy stays healthy, and is a decent number 4
15. Which continues to recede faster in 2017: Andre Ethier's health or his hairline? Health

Numbers

1. Predict Clayton Kershaw's numbers wins 20+, ERA under 2.20, 215 IP, 275 K's
2. Does he win another Cy Young? Yes
3. Predict Julio Urias's numbers 12-4, 3.45, 150 IP, 165 K's
4. Predict Cody Bellinger's numbers .304, 27 HR, 76 RBI, .868 OPS
5. Predict Kenta Maeda's numbers 8-13, 4.02 ERA, 165 IP, 125 K's

The Front Office

1. What's your grade of their offseason? C+
2. What would you have done differently that would make this team better? When answering this question, don't go into fantasy baseball mode, keep in mind the circumstances (payroll, trade demands from other teams, prospects, etc.). Not re-signed Hill, try harder to get Braun, trade Puig, tried harder to get Archer
3. What do you like most about this FO? What do they get right? Not trading Seager, Urias, and Belly. Depth idea is great, if not who they sign for that depth.
4. What do you least like about this FO? What do they get wrong? Rely on too many injured starting pitchers. This goes back not only this past off season, but the other off seasons as well. I think the Dodgers would have been better to get (or keep) at least one legit number 2, instead of 7 number 4's who are too injured prone.
5. Predict their trade deadline Get another starting pitcher, get Braun. Trade Joc, and Puig, and any prospects it'll take (not including Belly, who by this point is their starting LF)
6. Do you feel confident they can/will deliver a World Series title? No. Just don't see them being able to get a legit number 2. Urias will eventually become that, but Kershaw may be gone by then, and then Urias will need to be their number 1.
 

DodgerSSR

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#4
Yeah, so I'm about a month and a half late on this one, I know. I hardly have time for anything these days, so blame my hectic schedule… or, better yet, you can just blame Kyle. Personally, I prefer the latter. Anyway…

In a sense, I'm glad to start this thread a bit on the late side. Because it's early enough to where things can drastically change, but late enough to where you can potentially sense what could be some of the team's strengths and weaknesses going forward. Having said that, let's provide some context on how early it is in the season:

The Dodgers are 17-14, in 3rd place. Put differently, we're barely 20% through the season. To provide additional context:

1. The 2005 Dodgers started 12-2. One of the worst teams in franchise history.
2. The 2013 Dodgers started… well, I don't remember the exact numbers, but they were pretty freaking awful through June. Came within 2 games of the World Series. Thanks Hanley and Puig.
3. The 2015 Dodgers' bullpen was lights out through Memorial Day. Uh, this team did not go down known for their bullpen greatness.

I can go on, but you get the idea. So, in addition to the fancy poll I've created, let's answer the following questions…

The Team

1. How many games do the Dodgers win, this year? 92
2. Is it enough to win the NL West? Yes, in a close race
3. Which team will be the greatest threat in the division? Rockies
4. What do you see being the team's strengths? Left side of the infield, best pitcher on the planet, great closer
5. What do you see being the team's weaknesses? Bullpen depth with no defined roles.
6. Are the Dodgers as good as their main NL rivals (Cubs, Nationals, etc.)? If not, can they be? Equal to Cubs, need more to compete with Nats
7. Is Rich Hill a valuable contributor to this team come September? He hasn't been so far, so why would Sept. be different?
8. What about Hyun-jin Ryu? Good IF he stays healthy. Of course, you could say that about the entire rotation.
9. The starting outfield for the Dodgers on August 1st is…Bellinger-7, Pederson-8, Puig-9 (vs. righty starter)
10. The starting rotation for the Dodgers on September 1st is…Kersh, Urias, Maeda, Ryu, Oaks or Buehler
11. The starting first baseman for the Dodgers on September 1st is…Agone, not gone, yet.
12. Does Chase Utley finish the season as a Dodger? As a coach and reactivated Sept. 1
13. Does Cody Bellinger win NL ROY? The NL rookie class doesn't have as much competition as the AL...I think YES!
14. The biggest surprise for the Dodgers this year will be…Oaks/Buehler
15. Which continues to recede faster in 2017: Andre Ethier's health or his hairline? None of the above...my faith in his contributing in 2017, and he's my favorite along with Kershaw.

Numbers

1. Predict Clayton Kershaw's numbers--Still worried about his back but if healthy, 19-6, 2.15 ERA, 1.02 WHIP 210 IP, 242 K's
2. Does he win another Cy Young? Who knows how those idiot writers will vote. AJ Dickey comes to mind.
3. Predict Julio Urias's numbers 14-9, 3,25 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 140 IP, 145 K's
4. Predict Cody Bellinger's numbers .275, 24 HR. 76 RBI, .890 OPS
5. Predict Kenta Maeda's numbers 15-10, 3.85 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 180 IP, 165 K

The Front Office

1. What's your grade of their offseason? B
2. What would you have done differently that would make this team better? When answering this question, don't go into fantasy baseball mode, keep in mind the circumstances (payroll, trade demands from other teams, prospects, etc.).Gone after quality bullpen arms
3. What do you like most about this FO? What do they get right? Re-signed Turner and Jansen and kept Urias and Bellinger along with most of the kids.
4. What do you least like about this FO? What do they get wrong? Look at a pitcher's age and injury history before signing him to a big three year contract.
5. Predict their trade deadline No big splashes. Maybe some pen help such as Kelvin Herrera
6. Do you feel confident they can/will deliver a World Series title?
In a short series...yep, anything can happen, like in 1988. But, not betting on it this year.

Matthew, Thanks for getting this going!
 

grabarkewitz

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#5
The Front Office

1. What's your grade of their offseason? B+ Signing Jansen, Turner and Hill were smart moves and trading for Forsythe will prove smart, also, but not trying to upgrade our outfield will be their undoing, I think they could've had Cain for Pederson if they had went that way. Also, not making a serious play for a number two and a real set up guy for the eighth inning (although Fields is looking like a strong fit).
2. What would you have done differently that would make this team better? When answering this question, don't go into fantasy baseball mode, keep in mind the circumstances (payroll, trade demands from other teams, prospects, etc.). The FO spent prudently and kept what needed to be kept. Forsythe was a strong move, but we could've done better than Romo for the pen.
3. What do you like most about this FO? What do they get right? Willingness to spend, the amateur scouting and the smarts to keep the best. Drafting Buehler, White and Smith, guys who had warts but have shown ability to overcome.
4. What do you least like about this FO? What do they get wrong? Sticking with aging veterans because of salary, reputation, the non-tangible. Not making a serious effort to sign Seager to a long term deal. Each year they dawdle, the more the price rises.
5. Predict their trade deadline I think we go big. The farm is flush, we have a multitude of hitters and pitchers who could be fits elswhere. I think we target Kansas City because they are close to rebuild mode and get a righty centerfielder (Lorenzo Cain) and a number two (Danny Duffy) for a small piece of our farm system. I also see us going hard after a set up guy like Nate Jones or see if Neftali Feliz can be had.
6. Do you feel confident they can/will deliver a World Series title? Yes, despite the slow start, I can see that the FO is seeing that it is time for the young hands to take over. Even though AGon will stick, he will have a lesser role, splitting time at first with Bellinger, when he isn't playing left field and I can see the same with Grandal behind the plate as Barnes looks much more consistent behind the dish and with the stick.
 
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#6
McCarthy goes on the DL, Wood starting tonight, but with Ryu schedule to come off DL soon, I see them going back to a 5 man rotation soon. Libby back up for now, again I see Ryu taking that spot. No word on Guiterez. Interesting that Taylor is starting instead of Utley tonight against a righty starter.
 

monsooner

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#7
@Matthew - clarity on #5 - do you mean for us to predict a specific trade? The verbage is a bit funny, for which I am, of course, at fault. :)
 

monsooner

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#9
The Team

1. How many games do the Dodgers win, this year?
94
2. Is it enough to win the NL West?
yes
3. Which team will be the greatest threat in the division?
Rox
4. What do you see being the team's strengths?
Starting pitching, defense, bullpen, coaching staff
5. What do you see being the team's weaknesses?
individualism among hitters in key situations - trying to be heroes instead of getting the basic job done. I predict the Dodgers - if they keep this up - will be LAST in batting average with RISP, as well as last in "productive outs" if such a stat is tracked.
6. Are the Dodgers as good as their main NL rivals (Cubs, Nationals, etc.)? If not, can they be?
yes
7. Is Rich Hill a valuable contributor to this team come September?
no, unless he agrees to a bullpen role
8. What about Hyun-jin Ryu?
Nope.
9. The starting outfield for the Dodgers on August 1st is…
Bellinger, Pederson, Puig, 7-8-9 respectfully
10. The starting rotation for the Dodgers on September 1st is…
Kershaw, Wood, Maeda, Urias, McCarthy
11. The starting first baseman for the Dodgers on September 1st is…
AGon
12. Does Chase Utley finish the season as a Dodger?
yes
13. Does Cody Bellinger win NL ROY?
no
14. The biggest surprise for the Dodgers this year will be…
Chris Taylor's rise and subsequent off-season decision to trade either him or Forsythe
15. Which continues to recede faster in 2017: Andre Ethier's health or his hairline?
unfortunately, his health, but it'll be close

Numbers

1. Predict Clayton Kershaw's numbers
21 wins, 8 losses, 2.15 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, BAA just under .200, 260 Ks, 6.5 K/BB rate, and will be thrown out of a pretty important game sometime late in the season for arguing balls and strikes from the mound.
2. Does he win another Cy Young?
yes
3. Predict Julio Urias's numbers
10-9, 3.30 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, .235 BAA, 190 Ks, will flirt again with a no-hitter, getting into the 8th inning.
4. Predict Cody Bellinger's numbers
.261/.349/.525, 26 HRs, 155 Ks, 12 SBs, spends 10 days on the DL
5. Predict Kenta Maeda's numbers
14-11, 3.65 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, .262 BAA, 176 Ks, will give up 7+ runs before recording his 4th out in a near-future outing, but then right the ship.

The Front Office

1. What's your grade of their offseason?
solid B+
2. What would you have done differently that would make this team better? When answering this question, don't go into fantasy baseball mode, keep in mind the circumstances (payroll, trade demands from other teams, prospects, etc.).
I would've used our depth to try to sign a solid #2. Seemed like a glaring need, due to questions of health/durability surrounding Hill, McCarthy, Ryu, Maeda, and Wood. Urias might end the season as a solid #2, but championship teams have an Ace followed by a pair of strong #2's. That said, nobody really knows how hard the FO tried to get deals done with Chris Archer and the like. So it's hard to criticize. Would have liked to see a somewhat prove bullpen arm for the 8th inning.
3. What do you like most about this FO? What do they get right?
Obviously, they're on the cutting edge of strategy/stats/metrics, etc. The Dodgers - I think - spend more on off-the-field staff than any other club, and I think that points to a desire to be the best. Depth. And Forsythe was a good sign.
4. What do you least like about this FO? What do they get wrong?
Paying too much - still - for injury prone vet pitchers. I don't understand the strategy. Most reports suggest the Dodgers pay much more for the Hill/McCarthy/Anderson types than any other team was willing to pay, suggesting they WAY overvalue such pitchers and don't do their homework to see how high they really have to go.
5. Predict their trade deadline
Hmmm... my dreams would be a platoon partner with Joc, and an 8th inning guy. However, NOW (with Turner just pulling a hammy last night), that scares me, and I wouldn't be surprised if it bothers JT all season long. If that's the case, perhaps we'll have a glaring need at the hot corner.
6. Do you feel confident they can/will deliver a World Series title?
Confidence level: 45% chance we get to the WS.
 

mymn

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#10
Valentine will either be a smart move, or the worst hiring in Boston since Butch Hobson. Knowing his past, he'll seem good at first then wear thin on his players. The Boston media will have a field day with him all season reguardless.
 

BCmaiden

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#11
Agon pinch w/2 on in the 9th & rolls over a soft grounder to 1B. This & the GIDP are his specialty #1 & #2. Post season bench is going to be really weak. I can see it now.